Davis Goes Back to His Base
Davis Seeks to Rally His Base The governor presses drive to beat recall with a partisan appeal as California's Democratic leadership joins him on stage in San Francisco
July 20, 2003
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the institute were thrilled that he met with them Tuesday and made a statement — at their request — denouncing a ballot measure that would ban state collection of statistics on race.
That measure already has qualified for the next statewide ballot, so it would go before voters at the same time as the recall.
"The recall has shocked him into being a more engaged governor who seeks out the opinions of his natural allies," Gnaizda said. "The governor had ignored his base for a long time."
Democratic strategist Bill Carrick said that if Davis keeps Democrats out of the race to replace him, support for the recall is apt to decline among Democratic voters, but "that doesn't mean he doesn't have to go out there and really hustle to get them jazzed up."
"This is going to be an election that's going to be decided by who gets their vote out," he said.
In the extraordinary circumstances of the Davis recall, turnout patterns are impossible to predict.
Special statewide elections typically draw a disproportionately Republican electorate. Given the attention focused on this campaign — and its sheer novelty — it is hard to know whether that pattern will hold this time.
The committee set up by the Davis campaign team to fight the recall has filed a lawsuit that could delay the election until the March presidential primary, when a strong Democratic turnout is likely.
But the judge handling the suit has declined to slow the count of signatures.
Regardless of the election date, some strategists question Davis' prospects for keeping his job when polls show nearly seven in 10 voters are dissatisfied with his performance.
"He's going right back to his base supporters, but that's not enough to win — and he can't put together enough of those people to overcome the recall," said Republican analyst Tony Quinn. "The recall is much more a revolt against the political class, of which Davis is the personification."
In shaping his campaign strategy, Davis has turned for advice to Feinstein, who overwhelmingly beat back a recall in 1983 while mayor of San Francisco.
He also has sought guidance from former President Clinton, another Democrat who was confronted by rivals determined to kick him out of office, in his case, through impeachment.
"I have frequently sought his advice and counsel and am grateful for the suggestions he's made to me over the course of the past two weeks," Davis said in the interview.
Looming over the Davis campaign is the state's $38-billion shortfall and the legislative stalemate on passing a budget. Polls show that voters — like his Republican foes in the Legislature — blame Davis for the fiscal crisis. Davis, however, is trying to turn it to his advantage in the campaign.
In San Francisco on Thursday, he paid a campaign-style visit to a Chinatown medical clinic, where he cast himself as a savior of health insurance for children who might lose their coverage under Republican budget proposals. In a scene reminiscent of the television ads he used in his reelection campaign, Davis warned that more than 100,000 children would be denied immunizations under the "hardhearted Republican plan."
"When Republicans say they're against any taxes at any time, I want the public to know the flip side of that," he told a bank of seven TV news cameras as patients and clinic employees in white lab coats looked on. "The flip side of that is kicking 400,000 kids off their health insurance program."
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